THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON CHANGES IN THE ADAPTIVE EXPECTATION INFLATION MODEL OF EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES
Abstract
This study examines the impact of Covid-19 on changes in the model of adaptive expectation inflation in emerging markets. The data was collected by month from June 2019 to July 2020. The data analysis model uses simultaneous regression of 2TLS. The results prove that there is a change in the behavior of the cagan model, where inflation expectations can be detected from the value of money supply, G.D.P., interest rate, and Balance of Payment. The impact of Covid-19 changes the behavior of inflation expectations from buying behavior to waiting for action; this is based on the decrease in purchasing power and the decrease in foreign trade transactions of emerging market countries.
References
Baldwin, R. (2020). Keeping the lights on: Economic medicine for a medical shock.
VoxEU.org, March 13.
Mei-Ping Chen, Chien-Chiang Lee, Yu-Hui Lin & Wen-Yi Chen (2018). Did the S.A.R.S. epidemic
weaken the integration of Asian stock markets? Evidence from smooth time-varying
cointegration analysis, Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 31:1, 908-
926, DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2018.1456354
Jiang, Y., Zhang, Y., Ma, C., Wang, Q., Xu, C., Donovan, C., Ali, G., Xu, T., & Sun, W. (2017).
H7N9 not only endanger human health but also hit stock marketing. Advances in Disease
Control and Prevention, 2(1), 1-7, DOI: 10.25196/adcp201711
Ogundari K, Nanseki T. Maize (2013). Supply response to prices in Nigeria: Application of A.R.D.L.
and cointegration analyses. Dept. of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Faculty of
Agriculture, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan.
Chen, C. D., Chen, C. C., Tang, W. W., & Huang, B. Y. (2009). The positive and negative impacts of
the S.A.R.S. outbreak: A case of the Taiwan industries. The Journal of Developing Areas,
281–293.
Chen, M. H., Jang, S. S., & Kim, W. G. (2007). The impact of the S.A.R.S. outbreak on Taiwanese
hotel stock performance: An event-study approach. International Journal of Hospitality
Management,26(1), 200–212
Ekananda, M. 2016. Analisis Ekonometrika Time Series. Mitra Wacana Media
Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana, informasi Covid-19 di Indonesia,
https://www.covid19.go.id/, akses 23 Maret 2020, pukul 09.00
Bank Indonesia, Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (SEKI)
https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/seki/terkini/eksternal/Contents/Default.aspx akses tanggal 23 Maret 2020 pukul 11.01
Bursa Efek Indonesia, Laporan Statistik, (https://www.idx.co.id/data-pasar/laporanstatistik/statistik/), akses tanggal 20 Maret 2020
Kementerian Kesehatan RI, https://covid19.kemkes.go.id/situasi-infeksi-emerging/info-coronavirus/situasi-terkini-perkembangan-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-23-maret-2020/#.Xnle84gzbIU akses 23 Maret 2020 pukul 10.00
VoxEU.org, March 13.
Mei-Ping Chen, Chien-Chiang Lee, Yu-Hui Lin & Wen-Yi Chen (2018). Did the S.A.R.S. epidemic
weaken the integration of Asian stock markets? Evidence from smooth time-varying
cointegration analysis, Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 31:1, 908-
926, DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2018.1456354
Jiang, Y., Zhang, Y., Ma, C., Wang, Q., Xu, C., Donovan, C., Ali, G., Xu, T., & Sun, W. (2017).
H7N9 not only endanger human health but also hit stock marketing. Advances in Disease
Control and Prevention, 2(1), 1-7, DOI: 10.25196/adcp201711
Ogundari K, Nanseki T. Maize (2013). Supply response to prices in Nigeria: Application of A.R.D.L.
and cointegration analyses. Dept. of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Faculty of
Agriculture, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan.
Chen, C. D., Chen, C. C., Tang, W. W., & Huang, B. Y. (2009). The positive and negative impacts of
the S.A.R.S. outbreak: A case of the Taiwan industries. The Journal of Developing Areas,
281–293.
Chen, M. H., Jang, S. S., & Kim, W. G. (2007). The impact of the S.A.R.S. outbreak on Taiwanese
hotel stock performance: An event-study approach. International Journal of Hospitality
Management,26(1), 200–212
Ekananda, M. 2016. Analisis Ekonometrika Time Series. Mitra Wacana Media
Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana, informasi Covid-19 di Indonesia,
https://www.covid19.go.id/, akses 23 Maret 2020, pukul 09.00
Bank Indonesia, Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (SEKI)
https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/seki/terkini/eksternal/Contents/Default.aspx akses tanggal 23 Maret 2020 pukul 11.01
Bursa Efek Indonesia, Laporan Statistik, (https://www.idx.co.id/data-pasar/laporanstatistik/statistik/), akses tanggal 20 Maret 2020
Kementerian Kesehatan RI, https://covid19.kemkes.go.id/situasi-infeksi-emerging/info-coronavirus/situasi-terkini-perkembangan-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-23-maret-2020/#.Xnle84gzbIU akses 23 Maret 2020 pukul 10.00
Published
2020-12-05
How to Cite
RUSIADI, Rusiadi.
THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON CHANGES IN THE ADAPTIVE EXPECTATION INFLATION MODEL OF EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES.
International Proceeding of Law and Economic, [S.l.], p. 25-33, dec. 2020.
Available at: <https://jurnal.pancabudi.ac.id/index.php/iple/article/view/1077>. Date accessed: 21 dec. 2024.
Section
Articles
