• Ade Novalina Universitas Sumatera Utara
  • Ramli Ramli Universitas Sumatera Utara
  • Murni Daulay Universitas Sumatera Utara
  • Dede Ruslan Universitas Negeri Medan


This researcher discusses the economic problems that occurred due to the first Covid-19 virus in China. The outbreak of coronavirus has caused real harm among the people of the world. Indonesia also experienced this loss in various sectors, especially the economic sectors. The COVID-19 epidemic quickly spread to all parts of the world, reaching 187 countries with 294,110 confirmed cases and 12,944 deaths and predicted to cause an economic crisis. One of the impacts seen from this C.O.V.I.D. outbreak, the decline of J.C.I. from 6299,539 in December 2019 to 4194,944 on March 20, 2020. A specific target in this study is to look at the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the Combined Share Price Index, Trading Sector, and Financial Sector. This research uses the A.R.D.L. model approach, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (A.R.D.L.) method, to determine the movement of trade indices and finance indices affecting the flow of J.C.I. in the period October 1, 2019- March 20, 2020. The expected result of all analysis is to find the Leading Indicator of J.C.I. Movements, which are based on the influence of Sectoral Indices, trade, Finance during the Covid-19 Epidemic. The results of research on the evolution of the value of J.C.I., sector trade index and sector finance index in the period October 1, 2019- March 20, 2020, showed the COVID-19 pandemic would affect the economy in Indonesia. This research uses the A.R.D.L. model approach to determine the movement of trade indices and finance indices affecting the flow of J.C.I. in the period October 1, 2019- March 20, 2020, and the results obtained by finance indexes and trade indices are proven to have long-term cointegration or move together – the same long-term against J.C.I. Also, the three variables have a short-term relationship dynamic that has a speed of adjustment towards a balance of 17.21% % per day. This condition shows that the trade sector and sector trade influence the financial industry, especially the capital market. Keywords: Law, Economic, Pandemic, New Normal.


Baldwin, R., (2020), "Keeping the lights on Economic medicine for a medical shock,", March 13.
Mei-Ping Chen, Chien-Chiang Lee, Yu-Hui Lin & Wen-Yi Chen (2018) Did the S.A.R.S. epidemic
weaken the integration of Asian stock markets? Evidence from smooth time-varying
cointegration analysis, Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 31:1, 908-
926, DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2018.1456354
Jiang, Y., Zhang, Y., Ma, C., Wang, Q., Xu, C., Donovan, C., Ali, G., Xu, T., & Sun, W. (2017).
H7N9 not only endanger human health but also hit stock marketing. Advances in Disease
Control and Prevention, 2(1), 1-7, DOI: 10.25196/adcp201711
Ogundari K, Nanseki T. Maize (2013) .supply response to prices in Nigeria: Application of A.R.D.L.
and cointegration analyses. Dept. of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Faculty of
Agriculture, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan.
Chen, C. D., Chen, C. C., Tang, W. W., & Huang, B. Y. (2009). The positive and negative impacts of
the S.A.R.S. outbreak: A case of the Taiwan industries. The Journal of Developing Areas, 281–
Chen, M. H., Jang, S. S., & Kim, W. G. (2007). The impact of the S.A.R.S. outbreak on Taiwanese
hotel stock performance: An event-study approach. International Journal of Hospitality
Management,26(1), 200–212
Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana, informasi Covid-19 di Indonesia,, akses 23 Maret 2020, pukul 09.00
Bank Indonesia, Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (SEKI) akses tanggal 23
Maret 2020 pukul 11.01
Bursa Efek Indonesia, Laporan Statistik, (, akses tanggal 20 Maret 2020
Ekananda, M. (2016). Analisis Ekonometrika Time Series. Mitra Wacana Media
Kementerian Kesehatan RI, akses 23 Maret 2020 pukul 10.00
How to Cite
NOVALINA, Ade et al. INDONESIAN ECONOMIC THE IMPACT OF COVID 19 (IHSG BY ARDL). International Proceeding of Law and Economic, [S.l.], p. 34-45, dec. 2020. Available at: <>. Date accessed: 26 sep. 2023.