ANALISIS COMBINED POLICY DALAM MENEMUKAN LEADING INDICATOR STABILITAS HARGA DI SIX MOSLEM EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES (Gejolak Perekonomian Di Masa Pendemi Covid-19)

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the combined policy capability (fiscal, monetary, and macroprudential policy mix) in finding leading indicators of price stability in six emerging markets. Fiscal policy instruments (TAX and GOV), monetary policy instruments (JUB and SBK) and macroprudential policy instruments (NPL and CAR). For price stability (inflation). This study used the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Panel (ARDL) model approach to determine the movement of combined policies in influencing inflation movements in the period 1998 to 2018. The results showed by the panel the amount of money in circulation to be the leading indicator in SERIES (Indonesia, Turkey, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt) in controlling economic stability through variable TAX, GOV, Total Money Supply, Exchange Rate, SBK, GDP, INV, NPL and CAR judging from the stability of short runs and long runs where the position is unstable. The main indicators of variable ability instability control in SIMERIES (Indonesia, Turkey, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt) are the amount of money supply, Tax, and NPL seen from the stability of short runs and long runs, where the variable amount of money in circulation in the long and short term is significant in controlling economic stability. The covid-19 pandemic hit sectors of the economy around the world, during which the economic recession was inevitable. Before the covid-19 outbreak, Indonesia's economic growth was increasing, but at the time of covid-19, the decline in economic growth was very significant. As well as inflation, before the covid-19 pandemic showed a decrease, but when the covid-19 pandemic inflation increased significantly.