BAGAIMANA PENDALAMAN KEUANGAN DAN CADANGAN DEVISA MEMPENGARUHI STABILITAS NILAI TUKAR DI NEGARA EMERGING MARKET? (Pendekatan Panel ARDL)

Lia Nazliana Nasution; Dewi Mahrani Rangkuty; Ardela Ardela

Lia Nazliana Nasution Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan, Fakultas Sosial Sains, Universitas Pembangunan Panca Budi
Dewi Mahrani Rangkuty Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan, Fakultas Sosial Sains, Universitas Pembangunan Panca Budi
Ardela Ardela Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan, Fakultas Sosial Sains, Universitas Pembangunan Panca Budi

Abstract

This study aims to effectively determine the effect of financial sector deepening and foreign exchange reserves on exchange rate stability in 5 Emerging Market countries. This type of research is a quantitative analysis using secondary or time-series data, from the first quarter of 2004 to the first quarter of 2018. Model Data analysis in this research is the ARDL Panel. The ARDL panel results in the deepening variables of the financial sector and foreign exchange reserves in the short-run (short-run) have no significant effect in influencing exchange rate stability. But in the long run (long run) financial sector variables and foreign exchange reserves have a significant effect on the stability of the exchange rate. Based on the above results, a policy is needed by Bank Indonesia in the form of encouraging the intermediary function of commercial and private banks in the 5 Emerging Market Countries. Banking intermediation is directly related to the money supply, which has an impact on the financial sector deepening. The need for improvement in the deepening conditions of the financial sector is intended to follow up on research findings that show the deepening of the financial sector has the role of buffer stock is quite possible to maintain exchange rate stability.

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