ANALISIS PREDIKSI PELEMAHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA REZIM DEPRESIASI KURS

Ade Novalina

Abstract

This research is very important to do due to weaker economic conditions this time needs identification of the causes of the most significant, seingga need a special concern of government to determine the rare kebiakan to be taken especially teradap exchange rate and inflation. Results of this analysis are expected to be input for the government in determining the exchange rate policy seingga rupian menadi appreciated and stable inflation rate. The research objective is to analyze the current condition of the Indonesian economy. Analyze the effect of exchange rate to GDP. Analyze the effect of inflation to GDP. Analyze the effect of exchange rate and inflation to GDP. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression. Results of the data analysis states that are partial significant influence on the economic growth rate, which means a significant depreciation of the exchange rate boost economic growth. Partially inflation no significant effect on economic growth. Inflation and no significant negative effect on economic growth, rising inflation means not significantly reduced economic growth. Simultaneous exchange rate and inflation have a significant effect on economic growth. It means that if the exchange rate turmoil will have an impact on rising inflation and weakening economic growth. Based on the analysis of the depreciation of the exchange rate movement is known that the depreciation of the exchange rate regime caused by factors ekstermal very strong. Depreciation of the rupiah against the US dollar internally due to the manufacturing industry still imports about 40% to 60% of raw materials. In addition, interest payments and foreign debt servicing both public and private becomes greater as a result of changes in the exchange rate. Depreciation would reduce the competitiveness of Indonesian export products.