ANALISIS KAUSALITAS DAN KOINTEGRASI ANTARA KURS DAN VOLUME IMPOR PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA

DEWI MAHRANI RANGKUTY;

Abstract

North Sumatera is the biggest region in Sumatera island that has Medan as the city. North Sumatera has many potential economy sector for the region income contribution. None the worse North Sumatera need import goods for the commodity. This research aimed to analyze import  for North Sumatera for causality and cointegration method between exchange rate during 1990-2016 for equilibrium relationship. The results of the causality test indicate exchange rate and import for North Sumatera had two way causality. The import for North Sumatera had cause of exchange rate and exchange rate had cause of import for North Sumatera. But cointegration test indicate the variables were had inequilibrium for the long term. Recommended for government regulates import quota as trading regulation to keep rupiah. We need import but no dependency, import only for resources were not available in domestic or local. The Indonesia oriented sure keep on the import value year on  year of time for the exchange rate stability in hope Indonesia be own with high economic growth percent