ANALISIS PERGERAKAN HARGA CABAI DAN BAWANG DI KOTA MEDAN

Muhammad Ilham Riyadh; Dian Hendrawan; Jhony Manutur Silalahi;

Abstract

Chili and Onion are one of the foodstuffs that have very fluctuating prices.This paper aims to analyze price developments, the impact of commodity price fluctuations in Ordinary Red Chili, Green Rawit Chili, Local Red Onion and Garlic in Medan and analyze the inflation linkages between regions around Medan city.The data used in this study are monthly price data of ordinary red chili, green cayenne pepper, local shallots and garlic in January 2014-December 2017 or 48 months and for an analysis of the relationship of inflation between Medan city, Pekanbaru city and Padang city using data Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) starting from January 2014 to December 2017 or 48 months.The results show that during 2014-2017, the development of prices of ordinary red chili, green cayenne, local shallots and garlic in the city of Medan tended to fluctuate every month, in the short term only significant green cayenne pepper had an inflationary effect in Medan while in the long run there are two commodities, namely ordinary red chili and green cayenne pepper which have a significant impact on inflation in the city of Medan.On the contrary, the shock of the price of ordinary red chili and green cayenne pepper for one standard deviation will have an impact on the inflation of Medan city, the inflation linkage test between regions around Medan (Granger causality test) namely Padang and Pekanbaru are known that Padang inflation and Pekanbaru inflation are not there is a causality relationship or no influence on Medan inflation but Medan inflation occurs in a one-way causal relationship (influence) on Padang inflation.