ANALISIS KAUSALITAS DAN KOINTEGRASI ANTARA INFLASI DAN EKSPOR INDONESIA KE SINGAPURA PERIODE 1990-2015

Dewi Mahrani Rangkuty dan Lia Nazliana Nasution

Abstract

Indonesia is a country has opened economy and Singapore was one of Indonesia’s trading partner.
Since Indonesia has independence and until this period, Singapore still as one of the main destination
country for Indonesia export activity in Southeast Asia besides Malaysia. This research has aim for
analyzing causality and cointegration between inflation and export Indonesia to Singapore. Method
for analysis on this research are causality and cointegration test, Error Correction Model/ECM with
time series data from 1990 until 2015.Variables in this research are Export Indonesia to Singapore
(Y) as endogen variable, GDP Singapore (X1), Inflation rate (X2), and Exchange rate rupiah for US
dollar (X3) as exogen variable. Results of estimate shows GDP Singapore and Export Indonesia to
Singapore had two way causality and had equilibrium in long and short term for period 1990 until
2015. Exchange rate rupiah for US dollar and GDP Singapore had one way causality. Exchange rate
rupiah for US dollar and inflation had two way causality and had equilibrium in long and short term
for period 1990 until 2015. For Indonesia Government and or Bank Indonesia as domestic monetary
institute can be increasing the value for export Indonesia to other countries besides Malaysia because
if Indonesia has good export performance that means Indonesia has high income for GDP and so all
export commodities Indonesia had known in world trade market.