MODEL SEEMINGLY UNRELATED REGRESSION STABILITAS EKONOMI MELALUI COMBINED POLICY FISKAL MONETER DI INDONESIA

Ade Novalina; Rusiadi; Lia Nazliana Nasution;

Abstract

The research aims to analyze the influence of Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR), Government Expenditure, Interest Rate to GDP in Indonesia, analyzing the influence in SUR, GOV, INF on GDP in Indonesia, analyzing the influence in SUR Government Expenditure to Inflation in Indonesia, analyzing the influence in SUR Interest Rate, Money Supply to GDP in Indonesia, analyzing the influence by SUR Interest Rate towards Money Supply in Indonesia. The material in this study uses quantitative material with the SUR approach. The quantitative material in this study was related to variable data observed that was Government Expenditure, Interest Rate, Inflation, Money Supply, and GDP in Indonesia in 2010-2018. The results of the analysis of SUR from the fiscal side to economic stability showed that Government Expenditure was positively influential but not significant to Inflation. Government Expenditure positively influential but not significantly against GDP, while inflation has a negative on economic growth. The monetary side shows that the interest rate of credit is positive but not significant to the amount of money supply. Credit interest rates are negative but not significant to economic growth, while the money supply has a significant positive impact on economic growth. The combined policy shows that Government Expenditure is positively influential but not significant to GDP, while credit interest rates are negative but not significant to economic growth. No significant and monetary interaction against economic growth showed that combined policy has not been effective in achieving economic stability in Indonesia. Thus, it is as feedback for the government and Bank Indonesia in coordinating the relevant combined policy to achieve economic stability.