INDONESIAN ECONOMY THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 (IHSG BY ARDL)

Ade Novalina; Rusiadi;

Abstract

This study discusses the economic problems that occurred as a result of the first Covid-19 virus in China. A corona outbreak or virus has caused real harm to the world community. This loss is also experienced by Indonesia in various sectors, especially economic sectors. The COVID-19 epidemic was rapidly worldwide, recorded to have reached 187 countries with the case of confirmed 294.110 people, and 12.944 and predicted deaths would cause the economic crisis. One of the apparent impacts of this Garry outbreak was the decrease in the IDX from 6299.539 December 2019 to 4194.944 on March 20, 2020. The specific target in this study is to see the influence of the Covid-19 epidemic on the joint Stock price index, the Trading sector, and the financial sector. The research uses the ARDL model approach, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method for knowing the trade Index movement and the finance index affects the IDX movement in the period of 1 October 2019-20 March 2020. The result of the ARDL analysis is to find the Leading Indicator of the IDX movement, which is reviewed from the influence of the sectoral index, trade, finances in the time of the Covid-19 epidemic. The results of the research on the movements of the IDX, sector Trade Index and Sector Multi do Finance index in the period of 1 October 2019-20 March 2020 showed pandemic Garry 19 will affect the economy in Indonesia. The research uses the ARDL model approach to determine the movement of the trade Index and the finance index affects the IDX movement in the period of 1 October 2019-20 March 2020, and the results obtained by the Finance Index and the trade index proved to have long term cointegration or move together in the long term against the JCI. Besides, these three variables also have short-term relationship dynamics that have a speed adjustment to a balance of 17.21% per day. This condition indicates that the trade sector and sector trade influence the financial sector especially the capital market.