SINGLE EKSPONENSIAL SMOOTHING: ANALISIS FORECASTING DALAM PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI (STUDI KASUS PT. FOOD BEVERAGES INDONESIA)

Abstract

Forecasting (forecasting) is an important first step in planning for any business organization and for any significant management decision making. The Single Exponential Smoothing forecasting method is a time series forecasting model designed for data that creates a trend element. In this study, data on the number of sales of Chatime Drinks production at PT. Indonesian Food Beverages from 2019 to 2021 indicate a trend data pattern over time. The data obtained were then analyzed using the Single Exponential Smoothing method, to find the smallest forecast error based on the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results showed that the parameter value α = 0.5 is the best forecast used to predict the number of sales with actual data on the production of Chatime drinks with an error parameter of 1.2%.